Economics Intelligence

France's 10-year government borrowing rate reached 5.13% on 22 October 2026 on the Banque de France's constant-maturity index, up from 4.19% on 1 September. After Moody's review scheduled for 23 October, the French Treasury agency still listed France at Aa3 with a negative outlook on 24 October.

Four major central banks decide policy between 28 and 30 October 2026, with headline inflation at 3.7% in the United States, 3.8% in the euro area and 3.1% in Canada. The Fed and the ECB have each raised rates this year, and the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to around 1.25% in September.

India's CPI inflation (base 2024=100) rose to 5.54% in September 2026 from a final 4.83% in August, the highest reading since the new series began in January, with rural inflation at 6.08% against 4.88% in urban areas.

The IMF's October 2026 Fiscal Monitor, released on 14th October at the Annual Meetings in Bangkok, keeps global public debt, just under 94% of world GDP in 2025, on track to pass 100% by the end of the decade, with the fiscal outlook worsening for a second straight year.

China's GDP grew 4.5% year on year in July–September 2026, up from 4.3% in the second quarter, with seasonally adjusted growth of 1.2% on the quarter.

German exports fell 0.8% month-on-month to €137.6 billion in August 2026 while imports rose 0.9% to €118.1 billion, narrowing the adjusted trade surplus to €19.5 billion from €21.6 billion in July.

The US goods and services deficit widened by $12.7 billion to $105.6 billion in August 2026, the largest monthly gap in at least a year and double April's $52.9 billion.

The WTO raised its forecast for world merchandise trade volume growth in 2026 to 3.9%, from 1.9% in March, and expects 4.1% growth in 2027.

A sell-off that began in bond and oil markets has spread to emerging-market equities. The US 10-year Treasury yield is above 5.2%, the highest since 2007, and Brent crude has topped $105 after the US rejected Iran's ceasefire proposal on the Strait of Hormuz.

A new econometric study puts a classical SARIMAX time-series model up against LSTM, GRU, and ensemble machine-learning models on more than 30 years of Canadian CPI data — and the classical model wins on every forecast-accuracy measure.

The US Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%–4.00% on September 16, its first increase since 2023 and a unanimous 12-0 decision.

Prime Minister Mark Carney said Canada's "dollar for dollar" retaliation against new US tariffs will target steel, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, and electronics, taking effect September 8.

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis confirmed on August 26, 2026 that real GDP grew at an annualized 1.5% rate in the second quarter of 2026, unchanged from the advance estimate and down from 2.1% growth in the first quarter.

Minutes from the Fed's July 28-29 meeting, released August 19, confirm the FOMC held its benchmark rate at 3.50%-3.75% on a 9-3 vote, the most divided decision in years.

China's industrial firms above designated size posted combined profits of 4.58 trillion yuan in January-July 2026, up 17.6% year-on-year, National Bureau of Statistics data released August 27 showed.

India's retail inflation (CPI) rose to 4.45% year-on-year in July 2026, up from a final 4.38% in June, according to the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) — the second straight month above the RBI's 4% target, after May's 3.93% reading came in below it.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) raised its Target Reverse Repurchase Rate by 25 basis points to 5.00% on August 27, 2026, effective August 28.

Euro area annual inflation rose to 3.3% in August 2026, up from 2.9% in July, according to Eurostat's flash estimate published September 1.

China's official manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8 in August 2026, up 0.6 points from July's 49.2, while non-manufacturing PMI held flat at 49.0 for a second straight month, the National Bureau of Statistics reported August 31 — both readings mark a second consecutive month below the 50-point expansion threshold, though manufacturing's contraction eased.

India's real GDP grew 7.8% year-on-year in the April-June quarter of FY2026-27, up from 6.9% in the same quarter a year earlier, MoSPI reported August 31.

Germany's annual inflation rate rose to 2.9% in August 2026, from 2.8% in July, according to provisional data from the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis).

The ifo Institute's Business Climate Index for Germany rose to 88.8 points in August 2026, up from a revised 86.7 in July — the fourth consecutive monthly increase.

Canada's Department of Finance confirmed on August 25 that it will impose 'dollar for dollar, rate for rate' counter-tariffs on $27.6 billion of US goods across roughly 700 products, effective September 8, 2026 — the formal follow-through on Prime Minister Mark Carney's August 24 announcement that EconoLens covered the same day.

Bank Indonesia's Board of Governors held the BI-Rate at 5.75% at its August 18-19, 2026 meeting — the second straight hold following a rate-hiking cycle earlier in 2026 — keeping the deposit facility rate at 4.75% and the lending facility rate at 6.50%.

The World Bank's World Development Report 2026 finds generative AI is far less likely to automate jobs in developing countries — 4.5% at risk, versus 14.2% in high-income countries — while offering nearly as much potential to boost productivity, 16.2% versus 18.7%.

Mexico's annual headline inflation rose to 3.26% in the first half of August 2026, INEGI reported August 24, with the National Consumer Price Index (INPC) up 0.10% from the prior fortnight to a level of 145.393.

South Korea's exports totaled $21.3 billion in the first 10 days of August 2026, up 45.3% from a year earlier and the highest amount ever recorded for that 10-day window, the Korea Customs Service reported August 11.

The U.S. Treasury announced August 19 it will increase the maximum size of its liquidity-support buyback operations for longer-dated nominal securities (the 10-20 year and 20-30 year sectors) from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation, effective September 9, 2026.