Economics Intelligence

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis confirmed on August 26, 2026 that real GDP grew at an annualized 1.5% rate in the second quarter of 2026, unchanged from the advance estimate and down from 2.1% growth in the first quarter.

Minutes from the Fed's July 28-29 meeting, released August 19, confirm the FOMC held its benchmark rate at 3.50%-3.75% on a 9-3 vote, the most divided decision in years.

China's industrial firms above designated size posted combined profits of 4.58 trillion yuan in January-July 2026, up 17.6% year-on-year, National Bureau of Statistics data released August 27 showed.

India's retail inflation (CPI) rose to 4.45% year-on-year in July 2026, up from a final 4.38% in June, according to the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) — the second straight month above the RBI's 4% target, after May's 3.93% reading came in below it.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) raised its Target Reverse Repurchase Rate by 25 basis points to 5.00% on August 27, 2026, effective August 28.

Euro area annual inflation rose to 3.3% in August 2026, up from 2.9% in July, according to Eurostat's flash estimate published September 1.

China's official manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8 in August 2026, up 0.6 points from July's 49.2, while non-manufacturing PMI held flat at 49.0 for a second straight month, the National Bureau of Statistics reported August 31 — both readings mark a second consecutive month below the 50-point expansion threshold, though manufacturing's contraction eased.

India's real GDP grew 7.8% year-on-year in the April-June quarter of FY2026-27, up from 6.9% in the same quarter a year earlier, MoSPI reported August 31.

Germany's annual inflation rate rose to 2.9% in August 2026, from 2.8% in July, according to provisional data from the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis).

The ifo Institute's Business Climate Index for Germany rose to 88.8 points in August 2026, up from a revised 86.7 in July — the fourth consecutive monthly increase.

Canada's Department of Finance confirmed on August 25 that it will impose 'dollar for dollar, rate for rate' counter-tariffs on $27.6 billion of US goods across roughly 700 products, effective September 8, 2026 — the formal follow-through on Prime Minister Mark Carney's August 24 announcement that EconoLens covered the same day.

Bank Indonesia's Board of Governors held the BI-Rate at 5.75% at its August 18-19, 2026 meeting — the second straight hold following a rate-hiking cycle earlier in 2026 — keeping the deposit facility rate at 4.75% and the lending facility rate at 6.50%.

The World Bank's World Development Report 2026 finds generative AI is far less likely to automate jobs in developing countries — 4.5% at risk, versus 14.2% in high-income countries — while offering nearly as much potential to boost productivity, 16.2% versus 18.7%.

Mexico's annual headline inflation rose to 3.26% in the first half of August 2026, INEGI reported August 24, with the National Consumer Price Index (INPC) up 0.10% from the prior fortnight to a level of 145.393.

South Korea's exports totaled $21.3 billion in the first 10 days of August 2026, up 45.3% from a year earlier and the highest amount ever recorded for that 10-day window, the Korea Customs Service reported August 11.

The U.S. Treasury announced August 19 it will increase the maximum size of its liquidity-support buyback operations for longer-dated nominal securities (the 10-20 year and 20-30 year sectors) from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation, effective September 9, 2026.

Malaysia's headline inflation eased to 1.8% year-on-year in July 2026, down from 1.9% in June, with the Consumer Price Index rising to 137.1 points from 134.7 a year earlier, the Department of Statistics Malaysia (DOSM) reported.

Japan's Cabinet approved basic guidelines for the FY2027 (Reiwa 9) budget request round on 30 July 2026, creating a new "Strong and Prosperous Japan" Investment Framework held outside normal spending categories.

Prime Minister Mark Carney suspended Canada-US trade negotiations on the evening of August 21, 2026, recalling Canada's negotiators to Ottawa after calling last-minute US terms "unfair" and "uneconomic."

Minutes of the RBI's August 3-5 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, published August 19, reveal that Deputy Governor Poonam Gupta said "a case for a hike may emerge during the course of the year" given inflation is projected to peak at 5.9% in Q3 — even as the panel voted unanimously to hold the repo rate at 5.25%.

South Africa's headline consumer inflation eased to 4.3% year-on-year in July from 5.0% in June — its first slowdown in five months — Statistics South Africa reported on August 19.

UK inflation accelerated to 2.9% in the 12 months to July 2026, up from 2.6% in June, the Office for National Statistics reported — the first increase in the annual CPI rate since March 2026.

Australia's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 4.5% in July, the ABS reported on August 20, matching the level it also reached in April 2026 — equal to its highest point since late 2021, not a fresh record.

Hong Kong's headline Composite CPI rose 1.7% year-on-year in July 2026, down from 2.0% in June, the Census and Statistics Department said on August 20.

Foreign residents and institutions added a net $133.5 billion to US assets in June 2026, according to Treasury's monthly Treasury International Capital (TIC) report released August 17.

President Prabowo Subianto presented Indonesia's 2027 Draft State Budget (RAPBN) to the House of Representatives on August 14, 2026, proposing state expenditure of Rp4,097.2 trillion, up from Rp3,842.7 trillion in the 2026 budget.

The US Treasury Department issued a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on August 17 defining when a company "issues" or "offers and sells" a payment stablecoin in the United States under the GENIUS Act.

The euro area posted an €8.6 billion trade surplus in June 2026, reversing a €9.0 billion deficit in May, as exports jumped 14.4% year-on-year to €272.5 billion.