UK Borrowing Tops Forecast Again in July as ONS Corrects a VAT Data Error

• ▸The UK borrowed £1.8 billion in July 2026 — £2.3 billion above the Office for Budget Responsibility's forecast and 68.7% higher than July 2025 — according to the ONS's August 21 release, even as strong self-assessed income tax receipts helped offset higher spending.
• ▸The same release corrected an HMRC processing error that had overestimated VAT receipts for March, April, and May 2026 by roughly £235 million each, meaning borrowing in those months had previously been understated by a similar amount.
• ▸Public sector net debt reached £2,984.9 billion, or 94.1% of GDP — a share last seen in the early 1960s — while borrowing for the financial year to date, £56.7 billion, ran below last year's pace but still above the OBR's own forecast.