RBI Holds Repo Rate at 5.25% for a Second Straight Meeting — Same Decision as June, Opposite Reasoning Underneath

• ▸The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee held the repo rate at 5.25% on August 5, 2026, for a second straight meeting, unanimously — the same outcome as its June 3-5 meeting, reached despite the West Asia ceasefire "quickly dissipating amidst resumption of conflict in July," per the MPC's own August text.
• ▸Headline inflation crossed the RBI's 4% target in June 2026 for the first time in 16 months, hitting 4.4% — but the full April-June quarter still came in about 30 basis points below what the RBI's own June resolution had forecast, and oil prices were "volatile with sharp two-way movements," not simply falling, contrary to some press coverage.
• ▸What stayed constant across both meetings was the MPC's stated logic, in near-identical language both times: wait for "greater clarity to emerge," especially on inflation's path and composition, before recalibrating policy in either direction.