Thailand's Inflation Eases to 1.95% in July as Fuel Prices Stabilize, Core Inflation Ticks Up

Thailand's headline consumer price index rose 1.95% year-on-year in July 2026, the Ministry of Commerce's Trade Policy and Strategy Office announced at an August 5 press briefing — a deceleration from June's 2.42% increase and the third consecutive month of easing headline inflation.

The slowdown traces mainly to fuel: domestic pump prices, elevated for months by the ongoing Middle East conflict, fell during July and stabilized by month-end as government price-support measures took hold, TPSO director-general Nantapong Chiralerspong said. For the first seven months of 2026, Thailand's average headline CPI is running 1.21% above the same period last year.

Underlying price pressure told a different story. Core inflation — which strips out volatile fresh food and energy — quickened to 1.34% year-on-year in July from 1.23% in June, pointing to broader price gains in categories like prepared food, cooking ingredients and travel even as the fuel-driven headline number cooled. Despite the core uptick, Nantapong said stagflation risk remains low and declining, pointing to recovering private consumption and strengthening consumer confidence. The ministry held its full-year 2026 inflation forecast at 1.5% to 2.5%.